The further deterioration of the S & P: The safety outweighs the numbers

And besides, he had perfectly foreseen. The strong cash infusions could not prime the pump in the manner hoped for recovery. GDP has plunged into recession and whatever the approach of analysts, at constant prices to current prices or whatever, the result at the end of 2011 closed at -1.8% to -2.2% and one for other. Meanwhile, the prime minister has just spoken by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2012, during negotiations with the UGTT, whereas today, half of the year, the economic program barely started.

Can we put everything on the back of the current governance?

Not really, because the new administration has taken the hand in the last days of last year. And therefore, the numbers (BB) as Standard &; Poor's advanced should not be attributed solely to the new governance. Or even the old, because it has ruled that seven months, but still managed to cushion the blow, the consequences could continue at the pace of first quarter 2011, which had already declined by -8%. It is fitting that after a revolution, to which is added one, related to Libya, there is a slump.

But already by lowering the sovereign rating of our country, S & P, who shoots anything that moves, did not miss the opportunity to "run", already a first time to relapse in late summer 2011 and now we finish we finish in posting a grade "speculative" on international financial center. In reality, donors, observing in the early summer the figures announced with slow growth, may have other reasons to fear the Tunisian site. Attempt an explanation.
On the one hand, the beginnings of recovery since the beginning of 2012 do not seem entirely convincing.

Neither the CBT nor the INS had released to date figures on what really weighs (at constant prices) GDP at end-March and late April if possible. Because, by reading the notes in reverse that publishes the OWA, we see indeed that our trade deficit continues to widen because of Europe, itself, dilapidated. Is that our foreign reserves, which should cover the normal six months of imports, are currently on the red limit of 100 days of import. Moreover, by dint of injecting dinars into a brand new economy seized up, it eventually led to exacerbate inflation. This is already double what it was to end in December 2011 and is already at about 6%.

Working for several sectors are still struggling export and tourism that seems to make an effort, also remains at the stage of chugging along despite the high-dose amphetamine prescribed to him ... Provided the real reason lies elsewhere. Is that the social and political approach to tolerable limits.
Security and stability first

In a report from the U.S. embassy in mid-April, which was widely distributed on networks, social, reads in part: "the political protests, work stoppages, roadblocks and other public disturbances continue to occur. Demonstrations turned violent on several occasions in violent clashes between police and demonstrators, causing deaths, injuries and property damage "..." U.S. citizens are urged to remain alert to developments and local safety be vigilant about their personal safety "... "The Interior Ministry has confirmed ... that the group had links with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and arms traffickers known".
A month later, the U.S. Ambassador, he was doing a tour in the south, has seen firsthand that the situation remains precarious, since it almost got itself was attacked.

But such facts and reports fall inevitably into the hands of U.S. analysts and primarily S & P whose mission is to inform the sovereign risk in all states where U.S. investors put their savings, especially through the famous "investment funds" , they are expected to grow, to serve particular social pensions for "retirees".

It is perhaps this aspect that has counted most of the Tunisian sovereign risk rating. Since by reading his notes carefully, the agency reports that indirectly under conditions of stability (it considers the upcoming elections), the takeover of all azimuths could bounce economic data, which are an epiphenomenon.

Certainly, many will address the rating agencies because they can push states causing the rise in compensation costs of debt (6% for Spain and Italy, 11% for Portugal and even up 30% for Greece). However, it is highly likely that at some threshold higher compensation costs of debt, the risk of not being able to honor the debts of principal and interest is a mathematical inevitability.

This "club effect" may lead to a default (bankruptcy) for the fragile economies while debt is expected to induce a boost saving in order to generate leverage ... But it's not that slow growth may do so if it does not release enough resources to repay.

This is why the rating agencies take into consideration all other elements, including the country's stability, the quality of political governance and its ability to ensure security without the slightest flaw, the confidence of local investors, etc.., For note the reliability of a State as a whole, even though sovereign, especially in the era of globalization and mobility-volatility of capital ... Between charity and donor must be defined clearly and act accordingly.